Will China rescue Russia?
China denies that it wants to get directly involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but blunt statements and practical preparations undermine official positions.
The West has been put on red alert ever since Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Russian President Putin on February 22nd. Putin announced that ties between the two countries had reached “new frontiers”, ostensibly referring to improved trade agreements, but the meeting stoked fears that China may join the fray by providing Russia with weapons.
"We are concerned because these two countries share a vision. It is a vision ... of an era in which big countries could bully small countries, borders could be redrawn by force, an era in which might could make right. We have not yet seen the PRC provide Russia with lethal aid, but we don't believe they've taken it off the table either," - U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price
While China tried to maintain an air of neutrality on the war throughout 2022, their own media admitted that “China has to back Russia up with emotional and moral support while refraining from treading on the toes of the United States and European Union.” Now, however, it seems that things may have escalated beyond mere moral support, as Western nations fear that China is preparing to support Russia militarily, especially as China-US tensions ratchet up over a myriad of geopolitical and economic issues.
China has also been increasingly vocal on the war in general. As we noted in our first newsletter on the topic, China refused to paint Ukraine as a hapless victim, instead pointing out that both sides have escalated the issue. The US refused to be ‘reasonable’ when Russia requested Ukraine not be allowed to join NATO, and their allies continued to stoke tensions, determined to see Russia weakened. Even now, China is keen to point out that the war is being waged primarily by the US as a sort of proxy war for their own enrichment:
However, this doesn’t mean China is keen to jump into the fray. Last year, China and Russia continued to assert that they were just good friends, and the two had no formal political or military allies, and China seemed to somewhat resent being dragged into the issue. With regards to his meeting in Moscow, Wang Yi reiterated that China will "firmly adhere to an objective and impartial position and play a constructive role in the political settlement of the crisis" in Ukraine.
“China will, as always, uphold an objective and impartial position and play a constructive role in the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.”
Will China remain neutral as the Russia-Ukraine war continues with no clear end in sight?
Suing for peace
China insists that its main goal is to mediate between Russia and Ukraine to find a peaceful solution to the conflict. It wants to find success where the West has failed, and surpass the US’ influence by appealing to both sides and finding a solution that works for both of them. As we speak, China is working on a document that will outline their strategy for settling the dispute without further bloodshed.
It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that this is China’s true goal. After all, it would make them look really good if they’re able to broker a peace deal, especially when the US has been accused of discouraging Ukraine’s leaders from even sitting down to speak with Russia. It’s fitting that China has chosen the one year anniversary to start taking action. There’s nothing the CCP loves more than an anniversary, and its symbolism will be even more of a sticking point if they can triumph over the US’ policy of trying to defeat Russia, whatever that may mean.
China has also met with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on two separate occasions, sharing with him details of their plan for peace. This certainly bolsters their claim to neutrality, however, they are also keen to assert that Russia’s security concerns are “legitimate and reasonable”, something the Western allies supporting Ukraine are not willing to concede. If China is able to find a solution that truly brings both sides to the table, it will be an undeniable victory, not only for China but for the world.
This approach certainly makes China seem magnanimous, but there may be other reasons for their wanting to remain neutral and avoid outright support of Russia.
The cost of intervention
Last year, China watched furtively as Western sanctions on Russia caused the ruble to lose 40% of its value overnight. As China’s economy is both struggling to recover from the pandemic and quite entangled with the global system, it’s unclear to what extent they’d be able to weather similar penalties. For the moment, they’re signalling that they’re unafraid of US attempts to pressure Chinese companies to pull out of Russia, and standing up to the US by stating that their unilateral decisions on the Russia-Ukraine conflict are only causing damage to the global economy.
On a totally unrelated note, China has recently started stressing the need for self-reliance in science and technology in the face of US hostility, even more than they usually do:
“China's top leadership has stressed, twice over the past month or so, making efforts to achieve self-reliance and strength in science and technology, reflecting the great importance that's attached to the country's science and technology development amid increasingly fierce global competition as well as the US' relentless push for a so-called technology decoupling.” - Global Times
Even the Global Times isn’t silly enough to argue that US sanctions would have no impact on the Chinese economy. An interesting line from one of their press releases on the issue casts China as a victim of US imperialism: “it remains unknown as to whether the US is rational enough to respect and understand the position of China and other developing countries over the conflict, which means that China still needs to be prepared for potential consequences if the US were to expand sanctions on Russia to Chinese companies.” This is a stark contrast to their earlier self-portrait, where China paints itself as a major world power, able to stand shoulder to shoulder with the US and broker peace deals between nuclear powers.
As we’ve discussed previously, China is being economically pressured by countries signing up to embargoes, especially in the technology sector. But although they prize their economic growth above almost everything, security concerns still trump all else. Even if China manages to somehow dodge blockades by preparing their economy and complaining to the WTO about unfair practices, they still may not be able to avoid being dragged into the conflict against their will.
Huns at the gates
China is also worried about the possibility of being surrounded on all sides by hostile forces. A meeting between Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Japan in early February and the ensuing pact has raised alarm bells. Although nominally a disaster relief, China believes that the arrangement is “a step toward a broader pact that could allow the two countries to deploy forces on each other's soil.”
“Apparently, this potential security triad by Japan, the US and the Philippines is in many ways nothing more than a narrower, security-centric effort of the US alongside Japan, while co-opting the Philippines, to isolate and contain China — quite like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue of the US, Japan, Australia and India, or QUAD, and the alliance of the US, the United Kingdom and Australia known as AUKUS.” - China Daily
Ironic that China can accuse innocuous cooperation treaties of being more than they seem on the surface, whereas when they’re accused of the same, it’s just war-mongering and interference… But, anyway, painting such moves as the US’ militarisation of Asia (even though the US was not actually involved in the deal) shows just how on edge China is when it comes to even tenuous US presence in their general vicinity.
In response, China is set to hold a ‘joint maritime exercise’ with Russia and South Africa in South Africa’s waters, and even invited Brazil along to the party. According to a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defense, “this joint exercise will help to further promote cooperation in the field of defence and security among the BRICS countries, and enhance the ability of all participating parties to jointly maintain maritime security.” Although they haven’t said that this is in direct response to US/US-allied moves in the region, well, how else can such moves be understood?
A rock and a hard place
China does not appear to be rushing to Russia’s side, but nor is it turning its back on its largest ally. It’s in a tricky position – any move at all will immediately be picked up by the West, who will scrutinise any trade deal or movement of military supplies to death. China is in a self-imposed stalemate, with few viable moves that would allow it to move forward without antagonising its powerful rivals.
On the other hand, Russia is China’s neighbour and one of its most important trading partners. Abandoning them will mean abandoning China’s own goals of permanent superpower status. If the US can truly succeed over Russia, it will only set China back, and the US’ so-called ‘long-arm jurisdiction’ will be able to run rampant both in Eastern Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, leaving China without a viable large ally to have their back. If NATO is able to expand unchecked, China will have to wait at least another 50 years before it can catch up to the US in terms of global influence, let alone overtake it.
China’s list of enemies seems to be growing, while the US and the West seem to be picking up allies as they go along. As the war goes on, the chance that Russia might lose – or at least be weakened to a point where winning doesn't matter – grows larger every day. China may be keen to rush through a peace treaty, but its reasons may be less altruistic than they seem. Survival may well take precedence as China battles to protect its economic interests and physical borders, and hold off Western imposition for just as long as possible.
Sinobabble extended universe
The latest podcast episode is all about China’s recent policies in Tibet (again with the imperialism theme!). Listen here, on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, and Youtube.
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