China's Solomon Islands move causes waves in Pacific
Western observers say China’s expansion into the Pacific is a threat to regional democracy. China argues the West is just scared of losing its hegemony. Who’s overreacting?
In April, the Solomon Islands signed a secretive security agreement with China aimed at ensuring stability in the country, as well as protecting an increasing number of Chinese interests, businesses, and diaspora. To put it mildly, the West has not taken it well. The New York Times despairs that “Mr. Sogavare has shaken his own democracy and the stability of the entire Asia-Pacific region.” An article in the Economist paints the deal as a direct threat to nations such as the US and Australia, as well as other neighbouring countries in the Pacific:
China has built landing strips and missile batteries to assert its claims to disputed reefs in the South China Sea. It reserves the right to seize the democratic island of Taiwan by force. Its open ambition to control more territory than it currently does suggests a darker side to this maritime diplomacy. Its goal in Asia is a continent made up of individual countries that genuflect to the regional giant. It wants America out of its backyard, and an end to American-led alliances.
But is it all an overreaction? It’s not like China has done anything out of the ordinary for a major international power. As the same article points out, “The United States maintains hundreds of military bases in at least 45 countries. Britain runs plenty of outposts overseas. French forces are stationed from Ivory Coast to New Caledonia. Even tiny Singapore has training camps abroad.” Furthermore, the Solomon Islands has had a fair bit of political unrest recently. Is it so unusual for China to want to protect its interests (and people) in the face of political turmoil? Surely this is what any major power would do - and China knows better than most how dangerous a rebellion can be.
But the fact that China is powerful in and of itself is not the problem. Rather, it’s what China represents that has Western powers quaking. According to some, China is actively trying “to rebalance the global order in its favor… whether that means opening trade routes, establishing a military facility or signing a security agreement”. Simply put, this is a problem because China is not an ally; if anything, China goes out of its way to point out how much it despises the US in particular, and regularly mocks Western democracy. And China is well aware of the power that it has over Western nations; that it can make them jump just by suggesting a trade deal with a developing nation or by proposing cooperation with a non-allied, non-democratic state.
So is China’s new deal with the Solomon Islands simply another mind game? Is it another step towards world domination like the West fears? Or does it actually have nothing to do with China’s attempts to quash US hegemony, and is just a private contract between two friends as it claims?
A brave new deal
The deal that has everyone’s knickers in a twist remains vague. Based on a leaked draft document, it seems that the deal would allow Chinese troops to land on the island in case of unrest to restore order. This is not unlike deals that the Solomon Islands have made with Australia and New Zealand in the past, but many are arguing that the stakes are completely different. This pact represents the pressure that Pacific Island governments feel to ally with China, whether because of political tensions or economic reasons. After all, this deal didn’t just come out of nowhere.
The Solomon Islands and China have been growing closer for a while. In 2019, the Island nation made the decision to sever ties with Taiwan and officially recognise Beijing, jumping on the Belt and Road train to boost local development. We’ve discussed in a previous newsletter how countries around the world are shifting their loyalties from Taiwan to China as the non-state’s global position weakens, so again this is nothing new. According to one article, a major factor that contributed to the switch in relations was the increase in trade between the Solomon Islands and China over the past two decades.
It’s clear that China sees the development potential in the island nation, and is more than happy to provide infrastructure and fibre optic capabilities (built by Chinese firms of course) estimated to be worth around US$500 million in exchange for valuable raw materials. China has a number of so-called small island developing states (SIDS) on its BRI scheme, and while the Solomon Islands are by no means China’s largest SIDS trading partner, one Chinese study shows that China accounts for more than 50% of their exports market, mainly in timber and charcoal. China has also shown interest in the islands’ gold mine potential, and one Chinese conglomerate, China Sam Group, even attempted (unsuccessfully) to lease one of the islands out for 75 years.
It seems that, so far, the nature of the relationship has been win-win for both parties. China has not exactly tried to keep its intentions a secret, stating openly that “Pacific Island countries have abundant energy, mineral and marine resources, but badly need to develop infrastructure, energy and industries,” which China can help with in exchange for access to natural resources, fishing and seafood, tourism, industrial, and technologies markets. The Pacific Island nations, too, probably appreciate their candour. At least China treats them as sovereign nations, as opposed to a roadblock that can be “weaponised” to prevent further Chinese expansion in the region.
However, while the relationship is equal in words, it’s impossible to ignore the differences between the two countries when it comes to size. China is bigger in literally every way. Commentators have pointed out the imbalance in the relationship that characterises China’s collaboration with most developing countries, and the problems it may cause in the future:
The government should be conscious of the fact that it does not currently have the resources, moral fortitude and knowledge capital to effectively manage this relationship, a relationship that will be characterised by Beijing’s assertive influence, an increase in the number of Chinese companies in the country, especially with investments in natural resource-extractive industries and the potential for a continuing increase in the Chinese migrant population and their dominance in retail businesses.
From China’s perspective, however, this deal is just a natural progression, building on what has gone before and adding a new dimension to the two parties’ relationship. It’s quite typical of China to start with trade with a nation, then move up and spread out with infrastructure and deals with private Chinese firms, gradually increasing its influence. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that China is deliberately engaging in ‘debt trap diplomacy’, as it is often accused of doing by the West. The reality is more nuanced: China is just being competitive, taking advantage of strategic gaps and areas that have been long neglected by Western powers.
So are Western nations fearful for the safety and development of the Solomon Islands, or is there perhaps another reason why they’re worried about China’s increasing influence over the island chain, and presence in the region in general?
Claws out
Bearing in mind that everything is geopolitics, the West’s view of the situation is probably less altruistic and more… WW3. No outlet can hide its panic over the idea that China might build a military base on one of the hundreds of islands, causing the current balance of powers in the region to be destabilised. They don’t hesitate to point out the islands’ location (‘strategic’) nor their assets (‘several deep-water ports’) nor the deal’s possible implications (‘to directly challenge the activities of the United States’).
The West wants to fix this apparent issue, but unfortunately is being cringely obvious about its intentions. White House National Security Council Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell visited the Solomon Islands along with a few other Pacific Island nations, and even discussed reopening the embassy there. This prompted one Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson to point out that “The US Embassy in Solomon Islands has been closed for 29 years. The most recent visit to Fiji made by a US Secretary of State was 37 years ago. Several senior US officials now fancy a visit to some Pacific Island Countries (PICs) all of a sudden after all these years. Are they doing so out of care for PICs or do they have ulterior motives?”
All this is in the name of preventing Chinese military expansion in the region, but China denies any claims that it plans to build a military base on the island chain. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said: “The speculation that China will build a military base in the Solomon Islands is pure disinformation fabricated by a handful of people who harbor ulterior motives.” Chinese Ambassador Li Ming stated that: “There is no hidden motive, no geopolitical agenda as some people wrongly claimed. China will never infringe on the sovereignty and internal politics of Solomon Islands.”
Even if they could take China at its word and put fears over military expansion to one side, it’s fair to say that nations like Australia and the US generally disapprove of China’s economic expansion in the South Pacific. This attitude also reflects how Western nations view the Belt and Road initiative partly as a global land grab, and partly as “a multi-trillion dollar initiative that aims to direct global trade through mainland China.” And yet China laughs at the West’s delayed attempts to make up for lost time in the region, accusing them of merely imitating the Belt and Road Initiative they so fear.
A warning or a wake up call?
All in all, it’s quite obvious that the deal between the Solomon Islands and China is not a threat to Western nations, nor does China position it as such. China has a habit of acting like the kid of the playground with the newest shoes or the biggest ice cream - taunting, and accusing others of bullying when it receives any backlash.
But China does have a point that the West should tend to its own business instead of trying to criticise China all the time. There’s a lot to be said for developing one’s own relations instead of just interfering, and focusing on the long-term impact of aid and trade inside of trying to make short-term wins.
Even the PM of the Solomon Islands pointed out that Western nations were being over-dramatic, adding that he was not consulted when Australia signed the AUKUS deal even though “One would expect that as a member of the Pacific family, the Solomon Islands and members of the Pacific should have been consulted to ensure this AUKUS treaty is transparent.” Adding that “When Australia signed up to AUKUS, we did not become theatrical or hysterical about the implications this would have for us.”
Instead, even most Western media points out that the West should just try treating developing nations like actual people with legitimate governments, rather than just pieces in their game of global dominance:
Rather than play “global whack-a-mole”, as an American expert puts it, Western countries should treat this challenge like chess. That means anticipating Chinese moves, making blocking manoeuvres when necessary, and thinking in a strategic way. Just don’t treat countries like the Solomons as pawns.
China is no doubt taunting the West, but it is also just acting in its own best interest, as you would expect any country to do; it’s also what the Solomon Islands are doing. At the end of the day, China is offering what developing countries want and need, and in the current situation, it wouldn’t make sense for these countries to do anything but take China’s extended hand, in or outside of the Belt and Road Initiative.
If the West wants Pacific nations to reject what China has to offer, perhaps it should come up with something better to offer them.
Sources
China Daily, Right time for Pacific Island growth story [2019]
China Daily, Solomons' PM exposes US double standards, Beijing says
Economist, How the West should respond to China’s search for foreign outposts
经济地理 (Economic Geography), 中国与小岛屿发展中国家贸易特征与影响因素 [Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Trade Between China and Small Island Developing States]
Global Times, US’ attempt to woo Pacific islands serves its regional interests after realizing Western power vacuum in region
People’s Daily, US’ high-level visit to Solomon Islands aims to nullify China security pact, uses region as hegemonic fulcrum
People’s Daily, US officials’ warning to China-Solomon Islands cooperation a serious provocation, reveals ‘hooliganism’ and ‘bullying’
People’s Daily, Deepened ties with China prove Solomon Islands on right side of history: Solomons PM
People’s Daily, Security cooperation between China, Solomon Islands within sovereignty of two countries: spokesperson
People’s Daily, Chinese vice FM defends China-Solomon Islands security agreement
Roland Rajah, Alexandre Dayant, and Jonathan Pryke, Ocean of debt? Belt and Road and debt diplomacy in the Pacific
The Diplomat, Solomon Islands: A Pacific Linchpin Is Pulled [2020]
The Guardian, When China came calling: inside the Solomon Islands switch [2019]
The New York Times, Why a Chinese Security Deal in the Pacific Could Ripple Through the World
Transform Aquora, “Solomon Islands’ Foreign Policy Dilemma and the Switch from Taiwan to China”, in THE CHINA ALTERNATIVE: CHANGING REGIONAL ORDER IN THE PACIFIC ISLANDS