10 Comments
User's avatar
J M Hatch's avatar

I find comparing India to China, and some nations of North Africa, helpful if done with due diligence. It takes a lot of energy and effort to keep down any people.

Expand full comment
J M Hatch's avatar

"And of course my arch nemesis, Minxin Pei, has a book entitled China’s Trapped Transition in which he argues “because the **Communist Party must retain significant economic control to ensure its political survival, gradualism will ultimately fail.”"

**Substitute for "Communist Party" anything, and I mean anything, such as: Rockefellers, the Republican Party, The Royal Family of England, The Garbage Truck Drivers Union, etc., etc. Study it, then go back and look at the original statement from Minxin Pei again.

Expand full comment
Paul Dotta's avatar

The truth around nations outcomes is probably complicated - because it always is. 😉 China's rise was planned and accidental in the same way the rise of the US was both 200+ years ago, the way the British rose, and then fell, etc., etc. I think our times colour our perceptions; everyone seems smart until something goes wrong.

Expand full comment
Kurt's avatar

"Everyone has a plan until I punch them in the face."

.....Mike Tyson

Expand full comment
Paul Dotta's avatar

Yep, something like that! 😆

Expand full comment
Robert Wu's avatar

I am not sure whether the “plan” helps China’s rise that much. At best it had a mixed record. But China’s rise is for sure wanted, and willed, and pursued by the majority of its people, within state apparatus or not. That factor alone is quite rare in the world, from I can see.

Expand full comment
钟建英's avatar

Socialism is hard. The socialists had a vision of an equitable world, but no clear idea how to get there. A lot of false paths and failures. Fortunately China persisted and seems to have worked out how to do socialism. But as Chinese spokespersons always say, there is no secret formula, each society has to work out its own path for development.

Expand full comment
Seattle Ecomodernist Society's avatar

likely the 49-78 period constructed components or foundations of the subsequent development, such as a comprehensive state system. other key components likely included the size of the country, the general community cohesion of the people, the lack of rudimentary market mechanisms that could be copied from practice elsewhere, and the tenacity and experience of the Liu Shao Qi trend with deft architecting by Deng. the miracle was facilitated by this combination of favorable situation and planning. Wang Ying Yao and Ang Yuen Yuen have researched some of the nuts and bolts of the miracle. the uniquely favorable combination of factors allowed china to make new discoveries that can, must and will be replicated by other countries in more complex and difficult situations. a significant learning is surpassing aspects of the industrial conflict paradigm of the 20th century. Among other things it was thought that increasing state economy would fix problems with market systems or commodity production. Persistent honest attempts to limit markets in China, Russia, Europe and elsewhere showed this was not feasible, and through bold pragmatism China built and demonstrated a structure of 3 functions - production capital, finance capital and state coordination. While different countries are ascending different rungs of Akamatsu's ladder, the construction of state capacity especially competency of state economic bodies to coordinate finance and production capital is important everywhere, and it critically urgent for advanced countries embarking on software enabled economy.

Expand full comment
J M Hatch's avatar

I was given one of those nudges when someone likes a comment which reminded me something was itching / left as a quiry.

1. A ruined nation that had been (bombed) to hell during WWII

Japan didn't have the industrial capacity or airwing, according to Wikipedia an unreferenced number for the entire Sino-Japanese war was 5000 sorties, while the USA did 1600 sorties with much larger bombers in two weeks. Most of the destruction in China was the old fashion type, starvation, disease, and the bayonet. What infrastructure that there was in China mostly came out intact in no small part due to the size of China coupled with Japan held most of it until the Soviet Union came over the border. Unlike the Americans, the Soviet Union had little interest in smashing potential assets. The real loss to China was in human capital, many with an education or money did their best to get out and away. The real miracle of the CCP was their ability to rebuild and then exceed the educational capacity of pre-war China in such a short time.

Expand full comment
Kaveh Ahangar's avatar

A strange economy indeed that has to dynamite skyscrapers a few years after having built them, and straddle the surreal line between Marxist internationalism and ethnic Han chauvinism. China's history alternates between stability and upheaval, and we may be in for some of the latter sooner than most people think

Expand full comment