China in orbit
China’s recent space station launch reflects the CCP’s long-term ambitions to usher in a new era of space-based diplomacy. Let’s look at the past, present, and future of China’s space program!
After a brief scare that it might fall on people, the debris from the rocket Long March 5B — used to launch the first part of the Chinese space station Tianhe — fell safely into the Indian Ocean on May 8th. Chinese media was pointedly quiet on the issue, with only the Global Times really speaking up to state that Western media was making a huge fuss over nothing, and the likelihood of rocket debris hurting anyone was basically zero.
In fact, apart from a few editorials leading up to and on the day of launch, Chinese media has been relatively quiet about the nation’s new foray into space exploration in general. This is quite surprising, given the fact that China has relatively grand space plans, and has had so since the mid-20th century. Aerospace plays a big role in China’s plans for industrialisation and economic development, forming one of the 10 key sectors in the Made in China 2025. China has also expressed the desire to become a major space power by 2045, whatever that means.
Talk about space exploration and colonisation is becoming increasingly popular and mainstream, especially with the rise of prominent commercial space companies such as SpaceX. So for this week's newsletter I thought we could explore the relatively lighter, low-stakes (for now) topic of China’s space program — past, present and future. What is China trying to achieve with its space program and why? And how do China’s aerospace moves tie with its other domestic and international policy goals?
A brief history of China’s space program
China’s interest in developing space technology began just before the Sputnik launch in 1957. In 1956, Dr Qian Xuesen, an aerospace engineer recently returned from the US, issued a proposal to the government called Proposal to Establish China's Defence Aviation Industry. Soon after, the Fifth Academy of the Department of Defence was set up to work on China’s aerospace program, which at the time was mainly focused on developing rockets and missiles and having them launch successfully.
The Anti-Rightist Movement (1957), Great Leap Forward (1958-61) and withdrawal of Soviet experts from China (1959) all proved to be setbacks to Chinese scientists’ aims of launching a satellite. They were able to push ahead on their own however, and in 1966 successfully launched the country’s first nuclear missile and intermediate range missile (IRBM). As with the US and USSR at the time, the space program became a point of national pride and intense investment into aerospace technology was made in order to advance the program. China finally got into space during the Cultural Revolution. On April 24 1970, they successfully launched their first satellite, The Long March 1. They would go on to launch a total of 7 satellites during the Cultural Revolution period.
At the end of the Cultural Revolution, the space program not only lost its biggest supporters but also general interest from the public. The death of Lin Biao, the deposing of the Gang of Four, and the ruined nature of the Chinese economy meant that the space program became of secondary importance while the leadership focused on reconstructing the national economy. Deng Xiaoping especially stated that the space program should focus on developing projects of economic value. In order to raise money for their desired projects, many space program factories turned to manufacturing cars, refrigerators, air conditioners, and other consumer goods. Not sure how Mao would have felt about this turn towards capitalism, but it was certainly in-keeping with the times.
Fearing a complete loss of prestige and funding, a group of aeronautical engineers and scientists issued the ‘863 proposal’ to the government in 1986, arguing that the space program had huge potential benefits for China’s economic development, and warning of the dangers of neglecting science and technology investment and research. Their cause was championed by the new leadership, especially Premier Li Peng, who himself was an engineer. In 1992, China began developing its manned space flight program known as ‘Project 921’.
According to CCP, this project was divided into three phases. The first phase involved sending astronauts to space and bringing them back. For this they developed the Shenzhou-1, which was tested without a crew in 1999. Three more tests were conducted until October 2005 with the Shenzhou-5 and astronaut Yang Liwei, making it the third manned space launch in the world. The second phase was aimed at developing different techniques and technologies for use in space. This involved testing docking equipment, conducting space walks, and sending month-long manned missions. The third phase involved the assembling of China’s own space station, which began in 2020 and which we saw the first stages of just last week!
China’s space program today
China plans to complete construction of its space station by the end of 2022. Like previous missions of the past, the point of China’s current space program is to further the country’s science and technology capabilities, improve China’s international prestige, and open up possibilities for international cooperation and possibly even profit. Experiments linked to the new space station include recycling urine for drinkable water, recycling carbon dioxide for breathable air, and learning how to plant food crops for food self-sufficiency, all of which will be necessary for deeper space exploration.
It’s clear that China is keen to use the space program to foster international connections too. China has agreements with the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), the European Space Agency, and national space agencies including in Germany, Italy, France and Pakistan to carry out cooperative projects in the fields of “aerospace medicine, life sciences and biotechnology, microgravity physics and combustion science, astronomy, and other emerging technologies.” China also intends to invite contracted partners to come and live on the Chinese space station in the future. Hao Chun, director of the China Manned Space Agency, has said "Through cooperation, we want to build China's space station into a scientific research platform shared by the world and benefiting all humankind."
This all seems very nice, but it’s rather vague. From these statements and bland press releases alone, it’s difficult to gauge the overall aims of the Chinese space program both economically and diplomatically. One would be naïve to think that the Chinese government is just hoping that the space program will generate revenue, or that its invitations to cooperate with foreign partners is just a soft power play.
Some of the political advantages can be guessed at. This year is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PRC, and the launch of Tianhe-1 is an auspicious event that shows just how far the party has led the country in terms of growth and innovation. The success of China’s space program will certainly contribute to the vaguely defined but much talked about ‘socialist modernisation’ goals which China is attempting to achieve by 2035. On a grander level, however, aerospace technology has been pegged by the government to play a key role in the upgrading of China’s industry and economy.
Made in China 2025
Aerospace equipment is one of the 10 key industries identified in the Made in China 2025 plan issued by the Chinese government in 2015. The stated goals of the plan are to upgrade China’s high-tech manufacturing capabilities, improve technological innovation, and move towards self-sufficiency and AI-powered industry. Emphasis has been placed on moving away from being the ‘workshop of the world’ and to promoting home-grown tech industries, allowing China to wean itself off a reliance on foreign investment and innovation and instead become a global leader in science and technology.
The exact amount of funding the plan is receiving is deliberately unclear, but most estimates put it in the hundreds of billions of yuan. Most of this investment has been in automation so that the country can move away from its relatively backward manufacturing process, which is still heavily reliant on manpower. Another key investment area is in software development to improve cloud computing and big data processing capabilities. In becoming a “Manufacturing Superpower” (制造强国) and “Internet Superpower” (网络强国), China hopes to become a leading industrialised nation similar to Germany and Japan.
But Made In China is, at its core, a domestic policy. China wants to be self-reliant, and replace foreign technologies with home-grown ones that are just as good if not better than what any other country is producing. The benefits of this sort of strategy are clear: China can avoid a middle-income trap and developing a rust belt by continuing to create more domestic jobs, keeping employment rates steady, continually growing the domestic economy, keeping GDP level (if not astronomical), and reaffirming the legitimacy of the current leadership and CCP in general (yes I will always bring it back to politics, don’t @ me).
China’s space program forms a key part of this long-term plan to ensure the stability of the current regime. The program provides a nice little boost to the nation’s self-esteem, while positioning China as a challenger to the current world order, providing ample opportunity for the development of nationalistic, patriotic campaigns. It also provides scientists and engineers with funding to develop related technologies and conduct experiments that will allow the aerospace industry to contribute to other areas of the economy, including agriculture, transportation, medicine, internet infrastructure, and power. The space program does not operate in a silo, but rather as part of an interconnected whole, one which seeks to shore up the Chinese economy against any global uncertainties or meltdowns.
Space Power 2045
China has openly expressed its desire to become a ‘space power’ by 2045, which sounds both weird and intimidating at the same time. Among its many milestones, China plans to have developed reusable rockets for commercial use by 2035, and to take on further computer-led space exploration deeper into our solar system by 2045. Again, while this all seems a little detached from the realities of geopolitics here on earth, the success of China’s long-term space goals could have concrete effects on global economics and politics within just a few decades.
The development of China’s own space station would provide a viable alternative to the International Space Station and cooperation with NASA for many nations. As stated, Europe is already looking forward to future partnerships, and China’s other geopolitical connections in developing nations in Africa and Asia means that it has the potential to replace the US as the leader in aerospace exploration. Like with the Belt and Road Initiative, this may allow poorer nations or those with less agreeable (read: non-democratic) political setups to bypass US requirements to work with a more laissez-faire Chinese government.
It seems that China is also in direct competition with the US when it comes to space exploration generally, arguably because of NASA’s own policy of non-cooperation with the Chinese space program or Chinese aeronautical engineers in any capacity. Apart from building its own space station, China is also planning to become the second country to successfully land a rover on Mars and have it explore the planet’s surface for signs of water, and to get a better understanding of the geography, geology, and atmosphere of a planet that everyone seems convinced will be the next human home some time in the future.
The Tianwen-1 plans to land on the surface of Mars sometime in mid-May 2021, and will mean that China will have caught up with the US in one fell swoop. The potential consequences for US prestige are not lost on the current administration, as former NASA administrator Charles Boden admitted “[M]y concern is not that China is going places, but that our partners are going to China…we seem to be satisfied to allow them to go off and build their own space station… That’s short sighted… It’s not the mark of a good leader.” As China becomes a viable partner in space, the potential is there for it to become a viable alternative to the US in many other areas including trade, scientific research and developmental aid.
Due to its huge investment budgets in developing space technology, China also has a huge potential to profit from the sale or lease of home-grown patents and equipment to other countries. It’s not just space-specific tech either — there’s a lot of potential for many of the products developed in AI or robotics to be sold on the commercial market too. This technology also has the power to be deployed for military purposes, for example when developing new equipment or programs for cybersecurity, which can also be packaged and sold to other countries much like 5G is currently being exported worldwide.
A new frontier
Essentially, the Chinese space program represents more than just exploration and innovation. The domestic and international implications of China’s aerospace development could further the country’s potential to become the next hegemonic power, either competing with or replacing the US altogether. The US’s budding worries that China could overtake them in terms of space technology in just a few years are well-placed, especially given the precarious future of funding for the US space program after 2025.
At the moment, it seems that the US is beginning to rely more heavily on commercial companies such as SpaceX to pick up the slack. China’s government is taking the space race more seriously, though without the Cold War attitude. It has both state and private firms working on space stuff, and is either keeping pace with or about to overtake the current global leader in tech innovation. As it seeks to cooperate, bringing the disparate nations of the world under its wing and into its orbit, its influence will soar, and a new world order will be formed with China at the forefront.
Sources
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CNN, Why China's space program could overtake NASA
DW, Towards the Moon: Why Europe wants to work with China
Merics, MADE IN CHINA 2025: The making of a high-tech superpower and consequences for industrial countries
Spaceflight Now, China’s Tianwen 1 mission targets mid-May landing on Mars
Space News, Long March 5B falls into Indian Ocean after world follows rocket reentry
The Diplomat, What’s Ahead for China’s Space Program in 2021?
Wikipedia, China exclusion policy of NASA
Xinhua, China advances space cooperation in 2020
Xinhua, Factbox: Timeline of China's manned space program
Xinhua, China launches space station core module Tianhe
Yanping Chen, China's space policy-a historical review