Another year, another plenum
TL;DR: the party is necessary, Xi is the ultimate leader, rejuvenation is the aim, socialism with Chinese characteristics is the game
On Monday the CCP wrapped up the 6th plenum of the 19th Central Committee, a (slightly more often than) yearly meeting where the top party members gather to go over the record and decide the direction of the party. So you know what that means - it’s time for our regular dose of watching the CCP celebrate itself while glossing over all the negative things that have happened and sending out vague proclamations.
Last year the party confirmed the outline for the 14th Five-year plan, the details of which we discussed in a previous newsletter. This year’s plenum is significant as it coincides with the 100 year anniversary of the founding of the CCP, thus we have to sit through a huge chunk of the party going through pains to evaluate its own track record (don’t worry, it turns out they’re doing alright).
The two major documents that were put out from the meeting were the Communique of the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Resolution of the CPC Central Committee on the Major Achievements and Historical Experience of the Party over the Past Century. In the party’s entire history, only Mao and Deng Xiaoping have enacted historical resolutions, thus confirming that Xi is on a par with these two long-serving leaders. Of course, one of the anticipated decisions that was confirmed was the abolition of the 10-year term limit for Xi Jinping, allowing him to rule indefinitely. This restriction had already been removed, but as a successor would normally have been at least hinted at this penultimate session, it seems more definite now that the party is willing to follow Xi wherever he may lead.
But this wasn’t the only major move to come out of the plenum. Though we’ve only been blessed with vague communiques and subtle hints, let’s try and read into what was and wasn’t said. Obviously I won’t be touching on everything, just the bits I think are worth highlighting. I encourage you to have a quick scan of the two major documents, so we can work together to try and guess what the party is getting at. But before we do...
Wait, why do we care?
It may be useful to give a brief overview of what a Central Committee plenum actually is. The Central Committee is the highest body of the CCP and holds at least one plenary meeting per year, with 7 being held within a 5 year period. The Committee is elected every 5 years and consists of around 350 members, but other senior officials may attend the meeting in a non-voting capacity, including provincial leaders, industry experts, and academics. Being the penultimate of this central committee, a leadership reshuffle is expected next year, apart from Xi’s role as General Secretary.
It’s essentially another big fancy meeting with the top Chinese leadership where not a lot is said, at least not to the public, and a lot seems to have been decided in advance. We care, however, as this meeting sets the tone for Chinese policy for at least the next year, if not the whole of the next leadership term (which in this case is indefinite). The keywords that jump out immediately upon reading the documents from this plenum are Xi thought, socialism/Marxism, and national rejuvenation, which is in line with the themes we’ve seen developing over at least the past year or so, if not longer.
The announcements of note from this meeting were the adoption of the historical resolution, the acknowledgement of the increasing number of difficulties facing the country (environment, covid, economy, population, “severe natural disasters of multiple categories”), and the celebration of the fact that the “First Centenary Goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects” has been achieved. The documents seem to divide the affair into two parts: reviewing the past and setting a course for the future.
The present is mentioned in sweeping ways. The challenges faced due to covid, for example, are touched on, but they don’t seem to have the weight that other historical events carry, and don’t really seem to figure into the party’s plans for the future. It’s almost as if the present is a given - it has been determined by the forces of the past and the vision of the future. Marx would be proud.
This plenum also made clear that Xi thought is now the guiding principle of Chinese governance, putting it on par with other notable leaders. Preceding theories by previous leaders are Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, Jiang Zemin’s Theory of Three Represents, and Hu Jintao’s Scientific Outlook on Development. Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era (by far the worst name out of the 5), focuses on the following:
The leadership of the Communist Party of China is the defining feature of socialism with Chinese characteristics
Main task is socialist modernization and national rejuvenation
Biggest problem now is the unbalanced and inadequate development, requiring people-centred development, focusing on economic, political, cultural, social, and ecological advancement
The party, military, rule of law, economic system, and ideological base of governance must all be strengthened.
Now we know the purpose of the meeting and the resolution that it passed, we can look in a bit more detail at what exactly was said and how this may impact Chinese policymaking for the foreseeable future.
Reviewing the past
Both documents spend at least ⅓ of the word count directly addressing the past, and actively weave failures, achievements, and lessons learned into the sections discussing the present and future. A heavy focus on the past is notable for several reasons. I’ve mentioned in previous newsletters that the party refers to its past self so much so as to justify its present rule - the party is clearly the only legitimate ruling force, and history proves that. This plenum seems to take that reasoning to the next level: “Looking back on the Party's endeavors over the past century, we can see why we were successful in the past and how we can continue to succeed in the future.”
According to its own rationale, the party’s reason for reviewing the past in such depth is so that it can go about “upholding and developing socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era”, “strengthening our consciousness of the need to maintain political integrity”, “resolutely upholding Comrade Xi Jinping's core position on the Central Committee and in the Party as a whole”, and “uniting and leading the people in making continued efforts to realize the Chinese Dream of national rejuvenation”. In other words, we want to strengthen the position of the party and the party’s ideology, namely Marxism.
The main lesson the party should take from the past is how Mao was able to successfully adapt lessons from Marxism and apply them to the Chinese situation. This is the kind of work that the party seeks to continue, with Xi’s ‘new era’ of socialism being the main interpreter of this ideology. Apparently “in China, Marxism has been fully tested as a scientific truth, its people-centered and practical nature has been brought into full play, and its open-ended nature and contemporary relevance have been fully demonstrated.” Marxism, then, is something malleable, both scientific and humanistic, both relevant to the past and the future. (Notably, mentions of Marx and Mao are second and third only to mentions of Xi Jinping).
In their usual style, the party heavily glosses over major events that may be seen as damaging to their reputation, cherry picking events from the past 200 years that make the West look bad and China look like the underdogs that overcame adversity. This is, of course, the main theme of Chinese history from the perspective of the CCP. In their own words:
“With a history stretching back more than 5,000 years, the Chinese nation is a great and ancient nation that has fostered a splendid civilization and made indelible contributions to the progress of human civilization. After the Opium War of 1840, however, China was gradually reduced to a semi-colonial, semi-feudal society due to the aggression of Western powers and the corruption of feudal rulers.”
Having said that, there does seem to be a slightly more open attitude on some issues, possibly because the Chinese youth is more globally connected and therefore more aware of historical events that used to be easier to contain. The Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution are acknowledged as mistakes, though not in any substantial way. Tiananmen is referred to as “a severe political disturbance… as a result of the international and domestic climates at the time... was egged on by hostile anti-communist and anti-socialist forces abroad”. So again, China and the party are not necessarily to blame.
The documents pick out the revolutions that again make the party look good, as well as affirming their position as the inevitable and rightful rulers. Uprisings such as the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom movement, the Boxer Rebellion, the 1911 Revolution, may all have been concerned with doing away with either the past or foreigners, but unfortunately they all failed. Only with the spread of communism was the CCP able to save China and lead it on its new path to prosperity.
The point, I suspect, is more to highlight that chaos is bad, and that the strong leadership of the party and unity is always needed. We may be returning to the Marxism of the early party, but there’s no need for that ‘continuous revolution’ nonsense, thank you very much.
Something I thought was interesting is that the fact that in the past that China was very open, going “from a country that was largely isolated into one that is open to the outside world across the board”, which is highlighted a few times. It seems as if it’s there to segue into the fact that in the ‘new era’ of socialism with Chinese characteristics, the focus is on self-reliance and independence, phrases that are brought up multiple times when talking about the future of China.
The fact that so much space is dedicated to the past shows that Xi wants to harken back to the glory days of the party, focusing more on the original concept of the CCP, with more Marxism, more charismatic supreme leader, and more socialism with Chinese characteristics.
Now that the party has managed to “oppose imperialism, feudalism, and bureaucrat-capitalism, seek national independence and the people's liberation, and create the fundamental social conditions for realizing national rejuvenation,” the next step is to reassert China’s greatness, both at home and abroad.
Looking into the future
So Mao is the founder, and Deng is the architect of economic transformation. What’s Xi’s role? It seems that the focus is less on economic development and more on equality, constraint, and party oversight of all aspects of the public and private spheres. That may sound a little dramatic, but for such a well organised and fast-developing authoritarian state, it seems pretty par for the course to me. The key phrase here is national rejuvenation.
The notion of national rejuvenation seems to serve multiple purposes. One of them is to inspire patriotism. There are many phrases used in the communiqué like ‘standing up for ourselves’ and ‘following the Chinese path’ that have a strong nationalistic feel (“see how far we’ve come, isn’t it great here” kind of thing). The party needs the people to believe in this more than ever, as young workers are checking out if society and other generations begin to realise that the revolution wasn't the great equaliser it was promised to be. These phrases also support a further rejection of westernisation, another theme of the resolution.
Words like independence and self-reliance come up a lot, and the documents deliberately mention the unequal treaties as a highlight of history, defining historic reasons for tensions with the West, and importantly stressing that none of these events were China’s fault. Articles from Chinese outlets interpreting the documents also back up this anti-Western view. One article titled “CPC’s success lies in modernizing China’s traditions rather than transplanting Western system” (subtlety is not Global Times’ strong suit) starts off by stating that the success of the CCP lies in modernising China’s native traditions, rather than replacing them with Western ones. The writer goes on to say that the West does not have a monopoly on the idea of democracy, and countries that have tried and failed to copy the Western system prove that it’s better to forge one’s own path than copy the West. Another article “Vigorous Chinese democracy vs aging Western one” argues that a falling West and rising China is proof that Chinese democracy is better. So suck it Europe.
These are not the only hints that China wants to go its own way, become more independent, and reject all semblance of Westernism. I think the fact that the BRI is mentioned very briefly on a single occasion is very telling. Though there are multiple times where it mentions advancing connections with developing countries, it certainly doesn’t stress this point. Most parts about the economy focus on domestic development, and on creating a more level playing field with even growth across key sectors:
“The economy has maintained good momentum, positive advances have been made in building up China's scientific and technological self-reliance, and further progress has been achieved in reform and opening up. A complete victory has been secured in the fight against poverty as scheduled, the people's wellbeing has been further improved, social stability has been maintained, steady progress was made in modernizing national defense and the armed forces, and China's major-country diplomacy has advanced on all fronts.”
The way the army is talked about also suggests the importance of national strength, independence, and also the ability to assert Chinese interests internationally. The focus on military aspects of development (mentioned on more than one occasion) covers both internal and external purposes...
“With regard to national defense and the armed forces, the people's military has been through an all-around revolutionary restructuring in preparation for the next stage, while our defense capabilities have grown in step with our economic strength. Our people's military, firmly carrying out the missions of the new era, has taken concrete actions to safeguard our national sovereignty, security, and development interests with an indomitable fighting spirit.”
The phrase ‘development interests’ is subtle but important. Though they don’t use the word directly, this phrasing suggests expansion as a part of China's future military strategy, or at least strengthening its claims to disputed areas. Normally China’s imperialism takes the form of ‘it was our territory to begin with, it’s about sovereignty’ diplomacy, but there seems to be a suggestion that some sort of expansion via force is necessary in order for China to achieve its fullest potential. I don’t really have much to add to that as there’s no more details given, but I thought I’d mention it as we discussed China’s aims for the South China sea quite recently.
I personally think these comments on China’s future show the country is heading for a more isolationist stance, at least when it comes to dealing with the West. They are certainly not prepared to take the path of least resistance, and will engage directly with those who challenge them, whether in terms of politics, ideology, or geography.
The present and its dilemmas
Like I said, I haven’t discussed every point brought up in the main documents, otherwise this newsletter would be much longer than it already is. I guess an important thing to note about these meetings is that they’re not supposed to be a complete cultural reset. Not everything changes - previous plenums (plena?) also set out long-term goals, so we can’t expect to see major changes every nine months or so. However, as the present is an ever-evolving situation, I think it’s worth closing by discussing some of the ongoing issues the plenum touched on to remind ourselves of the ongoing themes in Chinese politics and society that come up in pretty much every newsletter, and will probably continue to do so.
Corruption: Something interesting that happened during the plenum was the expulsion of vice chairman of the Jiangxi Provincial Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference Xiao Yi. His position in the party apparatus was not that high, but it was high enough to be worth mentioning, and to serve as a representative of the party’s attempts to ‘tackle high level corruption’. If I was a suspicious person, I would say the party chose to expel him during the plenary session to emphasise the fact the party is doing something about corruption. Xiao was accused of using his power and influence to get bribes and pay for prostitutes, nothing overly heinous, and certainly something that most top level officials could be seen doing if people dug enough.
The problem the party has is doing enough about its very common and blatant rule breaking, while also maintaining legitimacy and control. The way it deals with this is by stressing its policy of self-governance, i.e. only the party is fit to police itself, which, as we have discussed in multiple newsletters, is a recipe for inefficiency and discontent. According to its own self review, the party has already achieved “an overwhelming victory… in the fight against corruption, and this has been consolidated across the board.” It remains to be seen if the Chinese people agree.
Economy: While there’s no direct mention of potentially destabilising events like Evergrande, the reigning in of tech companies, and banning of crypto, the party is clearly very aware of the problems of balance and overheating looming over the national economy. They state that “with regard to the economy, our economic development has become much more balanced, coordinated, and sustainable.” They don’t state it directly, but the party’s approach to solving any and all economic issues is basically to become more authoritarian. They hint at this by mentioning measures taken to “prevent and defuse economic and financial risks, and step up market supervision and anti-monopoly regulation.” Don’t read too much into it - it just means the party will have more oversight over all financial and business institutions from now on.
Sovereignty: Obviously Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau are addressed directly. With regards to Hong Kong they have this gem: “the Central Committee has adopted a series of measures to address both symptoms and root causes of relevant issues and resolutely implemented the principle that Hong Kong and Macao should be governed by patriots. These moves have helped to restore order in Hong Kong and ensure a turn for the better in the region.” I love that the way this was written suggests that the disorder was not caused by the party themselves. They also start talking about Hong Kong by referring to the Treaty of Nanking, further serving to vilify the West and highlight China’s past humiliation and the need to strengthen in the future.
With regards to Taiwan, the message is simple and in line with what we’ve already seen in China’s foreign policy moves: “We firmly oppose separatist activities seeking ‘Taiwan independence.’ We firmly oppose foreign interference. We have maintained the initiative and ability to steer cross-Strait relations.” So bugger off USA.
In general, the documents are pretty much what you would expect. Nothing left to chance and all major bases are covered. It is clear that in the future the party plans to have even greater oversight over every aspect of China’s society, politics, culture, military, media, communications, and economy. There will be no room for meddling, but plenty of room for interpretation. The interpretations of outsiders matter little however. The higher-ups have already decided China’s future. It’s for the rest of us to wait and see how it unfolds.
Sources
China Briefing, The Sixth Plenum: What is it and What Has Been Decided?
China Daily, Communique of the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China
China Daily, 6th plenary session of CPC Central Committee: All you need to know
China Daily, Former provincial political advisor expelled from CPC, office
China Daily, CPC plenum passes landmark resolution
Global Times, Key Resolutions on CPC history
Global Times, Key plenum stresses CPC leadership with strong core key to leading nation toward rejuvenation
Global Times, CPC’s success lies in modernizing China’s traditions rather than transplanting Western system: Chinese scholar
Global Times, Vigorous Chinese democracy vs aging Western one: Global Times editorial
NYT, China’s Xi Jinping Remakes the Communist Party’s History in His Image
Qiushi, In-depth look into fifth plenum